Single Factor Simulation

Single Factor Simulation
EQ Simulation projectSingle Factor SimulationBMFH simulationAll simulators

#What if….we was supposed to reach the ecological balance at country level by acting only on a single factor?

This kind of scenario is useful to get us aware on the entity of the challenges we are going to face. Every country has as a base the 2020 situation, so it starts with a EQidx due basicly to the relationship between ecological footprint and biocapacity in 2020. The SINGLE FACTOR SIMULATION allows to understand how a specific country have to reduce or increase a specific factor to reach the ecological balance freezing the other driving factors…no matter in how much time.

Referring to the basic EQidx formula, the four driving factors are Population and Footprint per capita at the numerator and Surface and Efficiency Factor at the denominator, where the “equilibrium” is achieved when the result is 1. Using the Single Factor Simulation you will see how should change every single factor to reach the equilibrium (EQidx=1) supposing that is the only factor to move. Pls. note that surface in reality is not a movable factor, so this exercise can show meaningful figures moving singularly one of the three other factors.

Three movable factors

This kind of simulation returns results at country level. It is therefore concerned to show us how we should move one single factor to achieve ecological balance within the country. So f.i. under “Population” you’ll find how many people should live in your country maintaining the current level of both Ecological Footprint (consumption included) and Biocapacity. Under “Footprint per capita” you’ll find what should be the right level in your country keeping stable population and biocapacity. Under “EFFidx” you’ll find how should move the Bio-efficiency index to reach the ecological balance (equilibrium) keeping stable Population and Ecological Footprint.

Start here to draw your own conclusions!

2020 Base

COUNTRYPOPULATIONDEV%SURFACEFootPrint xcapDEV%EFFidxDEV%
Brazil212559417085148773.1102.270
China1439323776095980803.3801.410
United States331002651093757758.2201.330
Russia1459344620170982425.6900.580
India1380004385032875901.1601.890
Canada37742154099846708.1700.610
Australia25499884076878509.3100.550
Indonesia273523615019194401.5801.80
Argentina45195774027804003.1401.120
France6527351105637325.1403.60
Bolivia11673021010985802.9601.780
Germany8378394203570215.305.330
Colombia50882891011389101.8701.610
Mexico128932753019725502.8900.830
Nigeria20613958909237681.1601.560
Peru32971854012852202.2801.020
Turkey8433906707835623.3301.640
Sweden1009926504500647.2502.380
Myanmar5440980006785001.4301.480
Ukraine4373376206037002.8401.640
Vietnam9733857903295601.6502.950
Japan12647646103778355.0202.410
Thailand6979997805140002.6601.680
Angola32866272012467000.9300.670
Venezuela2843594009120503.5700.870
Poland3784661103138934.4402.510
Malaysia3236599903297503.7102.370
Pakistan22089234008039400.7900.960
Iran83992949016480002.7900.460
Paraguay713253804067504.1601.840
Finland554072003381455.8702.20
Madagascar2769101805870400.9901.240
Chile1911620107569504.3600.920
South Africa59308690012199123.3100.560
Ethiopia114963588011271271.0200.590
Italy6046182603013404.6102.170
Tanzania5973421809450871.3200.680
Mozambique3125543508015900.8700.80
Kazakhstan18776707027249005.5500.230
Bangladesh16468938301475700.7204.240
Republic of the Congo551808703420001.2901.760
Philippines10958107803000001.101.970
Gabon222573402676672.0202.190
Spain4675477805047823.6701.160
Egypt102334404010014502.1500.570
Suriname58663201632704.2503.210
Guyana78655202149703.0702.440
Mongolia3278290015641166.0800.330
New Zealand482223302691875.601.820
Ivory Coast2637827403224601.2701.460
Cameroon2654586304754401.1700.940
Romania1923769102383912.7101.870
Norway542124103852484.9801.150
Ghana3107294002394601.9701.750
Zambia1838395507526140.9900.540
Ecuador1764305402835602.1701.370
United Kingdom6788601102635457.9301.440
Central African Republic482976706229841.2400.610
Uruguay347373001762202.9102.030
Papua New Guinea894702404628401.9100.760
South Korea5126918501002105.6903.480
Belarus944932302076005.0901.660
Chad16425864012840001.4600.260
French Guiana2986820835342.3403.980
Mali20250833012400001.5300.260
Uzbekistan3346920304474002.3200.690
Niger24206644012670001.5600.240
Denmark (Greenland incl.)5792202021660865.5100.130
Austria90063980838706.0603.30
Guinea1313279502458571.4101.120
Kenya5377129605826501.0300.470
Uganda4574100702360401.2401.140
Czech Republic107089810788665.1903.340
Morocco3691056007125501.6800.370
Algeria43851044023817402.1200.110
Taiwan238167750359805.9306.620
Hungary96603510930302.9202.250
Mauritania4649658010307002.5400.20
Burkina Faso2090327302742001.2100.750
Somalia1589322206376571.2400.320
Netherlands171348720425195.2804.720
Bulgaria694844501109103.3201.790
Afghanistan3892834606475000.7900.30
Ireland49377860702805.5702.620
Cambodia1671896501810401.2101.010
Latvia18861980645896.2902.790
Guatemala1791556801088901.8901.630
Senegal1674392701961901.2100.90
Honduras990460701120901.6801.560
Namibia254090508254182.4800.210
Saudi Arabia34813871021496905.6100.080
Nepal2913680801471810.9801.170
Turkmenistan603120004881005.4700.340
Greece1042305401319404.3801.270
North Korea2577881601205401.1701.280
Lithuania27222890652005.8302.370
Portugal101967090923913.8801.670
Yemen2982596405279701.0300.280
Nicaragua662455401294941.3901.150
Slovakia54596420488454.0603.030
Estonia13265350452276.8603.090
Belgium115896230305287.4404.520
United Arab Emirates98904020828804.9401.580
Liberia505768101113701.2101.170
Panama43147670782002.7901.620
Malawi1912995201184800.8101.070
Laos727556002368001.2200.50
Iraq4022249304370721.8800.270
Croatia41052670565423.9202.030
Switzerland86546220412905.7902.720
Tunisia1181861901636102.3400.670
Serbia87373710883612.701.240
Benin1212320001126201.4100.950
Syria1750065801851801.5100.570
Sierra Leone79769830717401.2401.380
Oman510662603095007.5200.320
Sri Lanka214132490656101.3201.440
Zimbabwe1486292403905801.3700.240
Azerbaijan101391770866002.31010
Cuba1132661601108601.9500.780
Kyrgyzstan652419501985001.9100.430
Botswana235162706003703.8300.140
Costa Rica50941180511002.8401.530
Djibouti98800000230002.1903.310
Rwanda129522180263380.8702.660
Equatorial Guinea14029850280513.9702.20
Dominican Republic108479100487301.5301.250
Guinea-Bissau19680010361201.5301.650
Bosnia and Herzegovina32808190511293.1201.050
Tajikistan953764501431000.9100.350
Slovenia20789380202735.8102.410
Libya6871292017595403.6900.030
Georgia39891670697001.5800.670
Eritrea354642101213200.4900.380
Togo82787240567851.1300.770
Bhutan7716080470004.8400.870
El Salvador64862050210402.0701.880
Burundi118907840278300.801.370
Bahamas3932440139406.8402.690
Qatar288105301143710.803.120
Albania28777970287482.2101.180
Moldova40339630338431.7800.950
Macedonia20833740253333.2601.240
Haiti114025280277500.6101.110
Israel (and Palestine)86555350269906.2201.120
Solomon Islands6868840284501.2901.050
Armenia29632430298002.2300.880
Kuwait42705710178208.1301.320
Timor-Leste13184450150070.4801.560
Lebanon68254450104523.8402.150
New Caledonia2854980185753.5801.180
Trinidad and Tobago1399488051287.9204.260
Jordan102031340923002.100.230
Fiji8964450182702.901.160
Montenegro6280660140263.7801.450
Gambia24166680113001.0301.750
Lesotho21422490303551.6600.550
Jamaica29611670109911.8901.160
Brunei437479057704.0602.180
Luxembourg6259780258615.8204.070
Swaziland11601640173632.0100.590
Bahrain170157507657.49012.90
Mauritius1271768020403.4604.430
Cyprus1207359092504.2100.440
French Polynesia280908041674.7300.920
Samoa198414029942.7701.280
Cape Verde555987040332.5200.850
Singapore585034206937.9704.220
Comoros869601021701.0301.280
Grenada11252303442.9806.410
Sao Tome and Principe219159010011.4901.90
Guadeloupe400124016283.2301.110
Reunion895312025123.6500.640
Tonga10569507482.702.090
Martinique375265011282.0801.30
Saint Vincent and the Grenadines11094003893.1103.590
Antigua and Barbuda9792904435.3802.080
Dominica7198607542.5700.980
Saint Lucia18362706162.4501.010
British Virgin Islands3023101532.8604.050
Aruba106766018011.8803.380
Barbados28737504314.4801.270
Saint Kitts and Nevis5319902614.9401.260
Cayman Islands6572202645.6500.80
Wallis and Futuna1123901422.0701.20
Bermuda62278053.15.7701.520
Montserrat499201027.7800.670
Nauru108240212.9400.980
Sudan41682000018860681.33000
South Sudan1265794106197451.33000
Congo Democratic Republic99320000023454100.81000
Island36670001028190000
Belize3779680229665.99000
Vanuatu2724590122000000
Kiribati11013608110000
Micronesia13586907022.8000
Andorra8545804680000
Palau2091804580000
Seychelles9565204550000
Malta49355903165.68000
Maldive39270903000000
Isole Marshall5642901810000
Liechtenstein3750001600000
San Marino339090610000
Tuvalu98270260000
Monaco40000020000
Vatican61800.440000
WORLD77945023780135914261.542.75010

Single factor simulation

COUNTRYPOPULATIONDEV%SURFACEFootPrint xcapDEV%EFFidxDEV% 
Brazil62059148119285148779.081920.78-65.6
China400285310-72.295980800.94-72.25.07259.6
United States151407538-54.393757753.76-54.32.9118
Russia17414674819.3170982426.7919.30.49-15.5
India535346528-61.232875900.45-61.24.87157.7
Canada7395983996998467016.01960.31-49.2
Australia4538486378768785016.57780.31-43.6
Indonesia218126427-20.319194401.26-20.32.2525
Argentina99603425120.427804006.92120.40.51-54.5
France39494283-39.55637323.11-39.55.9565.3
Bolivia65976230465.2109858016.73465.20.31-82.6
Germany35884820-57.23570212.27-57.212.44133.4
Colombia9795636792.511389103.692.50.84-47.8
Mexico56659029-56.119725501.27-56.11.89127.7
Nigeria124394579-39.79237680.7-39.72.5966
Peru5741151774.112852203.9774.10.58-43.1
Turkey38497111-54.47835621.52-54.43.58118.3
Sweden1479368146.545006410.6246.51.63-31.5
Myanmar7000981228.76785001.8428.71.15-22.3
Ukraine34956211-20.16037002.27-20.12.0625.6
Vietnam58993078-39.43295601-39.44.8765.1
Japan18140050-85.73778350.72-85.716.8597.1
Thailand32538335-53.45140001.24-53.43.61114.9
Angola90117197174.212467002.55174.20.25-62.7
Venezuela22143393-22.19120502.78-22.11.1127.6
Poland17729943-53.23138932.08-53.25.35113.1
Malaysia21024813-353297502.41-353.6453.6
Pakistan97863694-55.78039400.35-55.72.17126
Iran27094499-67.716480000.9-67.71.42208.7
Paraguay18037091152.940675010.52152.90.73-60.3
Finland1268607712933814513.441290.96-56.4
Madagascar73563007165.75870402.63165.70.47-62.1
Chile15915552-16.77569503.63-16.71.119.6
South Africa20605738-65.312199121.15-65.31.61187.5
Ethiopia65371452-43.111271270.58-43.11.0476.3
Italy14164592-76.63013401.08-76.69.25326.3
Tanzania48873451-18.29450871.08-18.20.8322.1
Mozambique74007121136.88015902.06136.80.34-57.5
Kazakhstan11536679-38.627249003.41-38.60.3865.2
Bangladesh86919396-47.21475700.38-47.28.0489.6
Republic of the Congo46668472745.734200010.91745.70.21-88.1
Philippines53794347-50.93000000.54-50.94.02104.1
Gabon289896341202.526766726.311202.50.17-92.2
Spain15924651-65.95047821.25-65.93.4193.1
Egypt26654542-7410014500.56-742.2286
Suriname123303142001.916327089.332001.90.15-95.3
Guyana170581862068.721497066.582068.70.11-95.5
Mongolia8443753157.6156411615.66157.60.13-60.6
New Zealand873168681.126918710.1481.11-45.1
Ivory Coast3697112440.23224601.7840.21.04-28.8
Cameroon3834402444.44754401.6944.40.65-30.9
Romania16469167-14.42383912.32-14.42.1917.1
Norway890476964.33852488.1864.30.7-39.1
Ghana21293639-31.52394601.35-31.52.5646.3
Zambia41410322125.37526142.23125.30.24-55.6
Ecuador178869671.42835602.21.41.35-1.5
United Kingdom4793967-92.92635450.56-92.920.431318.8
Central African Republic30653440534.76229847.87534.70.1-83.6
Uruguay12319207254.617622010.32254.60.57-71.9
Papua New Guinea18362478105.24628403.92105.20.37-51.3
South Jorea6127073-881002100.68-8829.11736.5
Belarus6757472-28.52076003.64-28.52.3239.8
Chad228387013912840002.03390.19-26.9
French Guiana142129234658.583534111.354658.50.08-98
Mali209126243.312400001.583.30.25-3.8
Uzbekistan13272270-60.34474000.92-60.31.74152.2
Niger19241178-20.512670001.24-20.50.325
Denmark (Greenland incl.)5024814-13.221660864.78-13.20.1515.4
Austria4562647-49.3838703.07-49.36.5197.3
Guinea1946634148.22458572.0948.20.75-33
Kenya26624622-50.55826500.51-50.50.95102.1
Uganda21763866-52.42360400.59-52.42.4110.5
Czech Republic5075933-52.6788662.46-52.67.05111.1
Morocco15599105-57.77125500.71-57.70.87135.1
Algeria12203828-72.223817400.59-72.20.39254.5
Taiwan4016319-83.1359801-83.139.25492.9
Hungary7179096-25.7930302.17-25.73.0334.7
Mauritania820097176.410307004.4876.40.11-45
Burkina Faso16929923-192742000.98-190.9222.7
Somalia162777352.46376571.272.40.31-3.1
Netherlands3796931-77.8425191.17-77.821.28350.8
Bulgaria5985708-13.91109102.86-13.92.0816.2
Afghanistan24638193-36.76475000.5-36.70.4756.7
Ireland3306632-33702803.73-333.9149.2
Cambodia15060885-9.91810401.09-9.91.1210.9
Latvia286378251.8645899.5551.81.84-34.1
Guatemala9384345-47.61088900.99-47.63.1190.8
Senegal14529854-13.21961901.05-13.21.0314.4
Honduras104352105.41120901.775.41.48-5.1
Namibia7048962177.48254186.88177.40.08-61.9
Saudi Arabia3102840-91.121496900.5-91.10.911037.5
Nepal17541547-39.81471810.59-39.81.9465.8
Turkmenistan3076242-494881002.79-490.68100
Greece3831305-63.21319401.61-63.23.46172.4
North Korea13219905-48.71205400.6-48.72.595.3
Lithuania2647577-2.7652005.67-2.72.432.5
Portugal3968306-61.1923911.51-61.14.28156.3
Yemen14478623-51.55279700.5-51.50.58107.1
Nicaragua1072319861.91294942.2561.90.71-38.3
SlovaKia3644243-33.3488452.71-33.34.5449.8
Estonia203621153.54522710.5353.52.01-35
Belgium1853716-84305281.19-8428.25525
United Arab Emirates2642779-73.3828801.32-73.35.9273.4
Liberia10742347112.41113702.57112.40.55-53
Panama45467435.4782002.945.41.54-4.9
Malawi15587368-18.51184800.66-18.51.3122.4
Laos966098932.82368001.6232.80.37-26
Iraq6204533-84.64370720.29-84.61.73540.7
Croatia2932333-28.6565422.8-28.62.8540.4
Switzerland1943179-77.5412901.3-77.512.14346.3
Tunisia4697143-60.31636100.93-60.31.69152.2
Serbia4045079-53.7883611.25-53.72.67115.3
Benin7566252-37.61126200.88-37.61.5260
Syria6953903-60.31851800.6-60.31.43150.9
Sierra Leone79769830717401.2401.380
Oman1303819-74.53095001.92-74.51.24287.5
Sri Lanka7137749-66.7656100.44-66.74.31199.3
Zimbabwe6726286-54.73905800.62-54.70.52116.7
Azerbaijan3730865-63.2866000.85-63.22.7170
Cuba4414475-611108600.76-611.99155.1
Kyrgyzstan4440551-31.91985001.3-31.90.6346.5
Botswana2130586-9.46003703.47-9.40.157.1
Costa Rica2744366-46.1511001.53-46.12.8385
Djibouti3473789-64.8230000.77-64.89.41184.3
Rwanda8039307-37.9263380.54-37.94.2860.9
Equatorial Guinea155494510.8280514.410.81.99-9.5
Dominican Republic3970476-63.4487300.56-63.43.41172.8
Guinea-Bissau389741398361203.03980.83-49.7
Bosnia and Herzegovina1714017-47.8511291.63-47.8290.5
Tajikistan5554892-41.81431000.53-41.80.6174.3
Slovenia840878-59.6202732.35-59.65.96147.3
Libya1303497-8117595400.7-810.14366.7
Georgia2954003-25.9697001.17-25.90.934.3
Eritrea9408872165.31213201.3165.30.14-63.2
Togo3882941-53.1567850.53-53.11.65114.3
Bhutan8401598.9470005.278.90.79-9.2
El Salvador1911393-70.5210400.61-70.56.38239.4
Burundi4756313-60278300.32-603.42149.6
Bahamas54904639.6139409.5539.61.93-28.3
Qatar330787-88.5114371.24-88.527.21772.1
Albania1536561-46.6287481.18-46.62.2187.3
Moldova1813017-55.1338430.8-55.12.12123.2
Macedonia964998-53.7253331.51-53.72.68116.1
Haiti5047020-55.7277500.27-55.72.51126.1
Israel (and Palestine)487047-94.4269900.35-94.419.951681.3
Solomon Islands2321561238284504.362380.31-70.5
Armenia1182639-60.1298000.89-60.12.22152.3
Kuwait288907-93.2178200.55-93.219.481375.8
Timor-Leste4889233270.8150071.78270.80.42-73.1
Lebanon586561-91.4104520.33-91.425.081066.5
New Caledonia611667114.2185757.67114.20.55-53.4
Trinidad and Tobago275656-80.351281.56-80.321.61407.3
Jordan1020313-90923000.21-902.32908.7
Fiji732611-18.3182702.37-18.31.4222.4
Montenegro538342-14.3140263.24-14.31.6916.6
Gambia1923949-20.4113000.82-20.42.225.7
Lesotho1006598-53303550.78-531.17112.7
Jamaica673704-77.2109910.43-77.25.09338.8
Brunei309252-29.357702.87-29.33.0841.3
Luxembourg66475-89.425861.68-89.438.29840.8
Swaziland507932-56.2173630.88-56.21.34127.1
Bahrain131764-92.37650.58-92.3166.61191.5
Mauritius260969-79.520400.71-79.521.57386.9
Cyprus97506-91.992500.34-91.95.51150
French Polynesia81362-7141671.37-713.19246.7
Samoa138245-30.329941.93-30.31.8443.8
Cape Verde136790-75.440330.62-75.43.47308.2
Singapore36702-99.46930.05-99.4672.8315843.8
Comoros270167-68.921700.32-68.94.13222.7
Grenada74008-34.23441.96-34.29.7552.1
Sao Tome and Principe127965-41.610010.87-41.63.2671.6
Guadeloupe55744-86.116280.45-86.17.94615.3
Reunion44152-95.125120.18-95.113.011932.8
Tonga57936-45.27481.48-45.23.8282.8
Martinique70362-81.311280.39-81.36.92432.3
Saint Vincent and the Grenadines44946-59.53891.26-59.58.87147.1
Antigua and Barbuda17110-82.54430.94-82.511.89471.6
Dominica28850-59.97541.03-59.92.45150
Saint Lucia25482-86.16160.34-86.17.3622.8
British Virgin Islands21669-28.31532.05-28.35.6539.5
Aruba5122-95.21800.57-95.270.471984.9
Barbados12187-95.84310.19-95.829.872252
Saint Kitts and Nevis6676-87.42610.62-87.410.07699.2
Cayman Islands3722-94.32640.32-94.314.071658.8
Wallis and Futuna8198-27.11421.51-27.11.6436.7
Bermuda1403-97.753.10.13-97.767.674352
Montserrat872-82.51021.36-82.53.81468.7
Nauru699-93.5210.19-93.515.151445.9
Sudan37921218-918860681.21-90.29#DIV/0!
South Sudan11515871-96197451.21-90.27#DIV/0!
Congo Democratic Republic323709629225.923454102.64225.90.34#DIV/0!
Island#DIV/0!#DIV/0!1028190#DIV/0!0#DIV/0!
Belize237255-37.2229663.76-37.20.99#DIV/0!
Vanuatu#DIV/0!#DIV/0!122000#DIV/0!0#DIV/0!
Kiribati#DIV/0!#DIV/0!8110#DIV/0!0#DIV/0!
Micronesia104813-22.97022.16-22.95.42#DIV/0!
Andorra#DIV/0!#DIV/0!4680#DIV/0!0#DIV/0!
Palau#DIV/0!#DIV/0!4580#DIV/0!0#DIV/0!
Seychelles#DIV/0!#DIV/0!4550#DIV/0!0#DIV/0!
Malta50398-72.23160.58-72.288.72#DIV/0!
Maldive#DIV/0!#DIV/0!3000#DIV/0!0#DIV/0!
Isole Marshall#DIV/0!#DIV/0!1810#DIV/0!0#DIV/0!
Liechtenstein#DIV/0!#DIV/0!1600#DIV/0!0#DIV/0!
San Marino#DIV/0!#DIV/0!610#DIV/0!0#DIV/0!
Tuvalu#DIV/0!#DIV/0!260#DIV/0!0#DIV/0!
Monaco#DIV/0!#DIV/0!20#DIV/0!0#DIV/0!
Vatican#DIV/0!#DIV/0!0.440#DIV/0!0#DIV/0!
WORLD5266872287.655-32.5135914261.541.73-371.6666

How to read the simulation

  1. Type on both search field the name of the country you want, for example “France”
  2. View data; the first table shows the situation in 2020, the second table shows how each single factor should move to achieve the ecological balance, assuming that the other factors remain unchanged

Example France: the simulator shows that if we had to act only on the population while leaving the oter factors at unchanged levels, the popolation would have to decrease by 39,5% to reach ecological balance. What does it mean? Wanting to live in a sustainable country, keeping stable the current lifestyle and bio-productivity, France has currently an overpopulation of 39,5%.

If we wanted to act on the ecological footprint while leaving the population and biocapacity unchanged, we would have to reduce it by 39,5% here too. Instead, in the case we wanted to act on biocapacity while leaving the other factors unchanged, we should instead be very good at increasing the Bio-efficiency by 66%.

In cases where countries are in ecological reserve conditions (i.e. where the total biocapacity is higher than the ecological footprint, and where therefore the conditions of ecological equilibrium already exist) the simulator returns the data relating to the limits where each single factor can be pushed not to break the ecological balance within the country.

Take a look at Brazil f.i., here with the current lifestyle they could theoretically live up to more than 620 million people (192% more than today).By the same principle, if the population and biocapacity remained the same, Brazilians could afford, for example, a level of ecological footprint (and for extension consumption), almost tripled compared to today (+192%) .

Conclusions

Of course this simulation is totally unrealistic as a whole, and it’s limited to an analysis of the resources of each individual country. However, it is an excellent point of view to make us understand how much we have exceeded or how far are from the limits of any factor affecting the ecological balance. With the simulator it is possible to obtain the data of almost all the nations of the world.

Thanks for your donation, all this work is voluntary and unpaid. Every small donations allow me to continue to work in order to get people aware on how to build together a sustainable world!

Licenza Creative Commons
Quest’opera è distribuita con Licenza Creative Commons Attribuzione 4.0 Internazionale.

Lascia un commento

Il tuo indirizzo email non sarà pubblicato. I campi obbligatori sono contrassegnati *