BMFH Simulation

Balanced Mixed Factors Simulation
EQ Simulation projectSingle Factor SimulationBMFH simulationAll simulators

#What if….we had to act by moving all the factors correctly and as balanced as possible, in order to achieve the Human Impact Balance on the planet?

This scenario starts from a clear principle, already current today but undeclared: it will not be possible to achieve ecological balance within all nations, so there will be countries with ecological reserves that will still have to lend biocapacity to countries in deficit. In this form of “solidarity”, the question is “how can we do so that deficits decrease and the global ecological footprint decreases as well, reaching the ecological balance (EQidx=1) at planetary level within 2050?”

With the goal just mentioned in mind, the scenario reconstructs a path aimed at bringing the EQidx from 1,58 to 1,4 within 2030, and reaching the goal of 1 in 2050.

This kind of simulation starts at global level to returns results at country level. It is therefore concerned to tell us how we should move the 3 movable factors to achieve ecological balance within the planet. Figures included in this study may be taken as ideal goals for each country to achieve TOGETHER the ambitious goal of EQidx=1 (Equilibrium) at global level within 2050.

First step: Acting on Biocapacity

Biocapacity is defined in this model as the area of a country multiplied by the Bio-Efficiency factor (EFFidx). Not being able to act directly on the surface, the simulation proposes an action on the Bio-efficiency factor as follows:

  1. Countries having bio-efficiency index (EFFidx) below 2 will have to increase their bio-efficiency by 10% by 2030 and by a further 10% by 2050
  2. Countries having bio-efficiency index (EFFidx) between 2 and 4:
    1. if they are in strong situation of Biocapacity reserve (Balance per capita >3,5 gha), it is realistically assumed that they want to partially exploit this surplus in order to increase domestic consumption in the next decade. For that reason it is estimated a lower bio-efficiency index of only 2% in 2030; if this surplus situation still go over 2030, a further decrease of 2% by 2050 is here expected. However, -2% is an important target to limit the loss of biocapacity in those countries that will not feel the need, but will have to lend some of their biocapacity to other countries instead.
    2. If they are in good biocapacity reserve situation, but not so strong (Balance per capita <3,5 gha), they are expected to keep the same situation for 2030 and 2050.
  3. Countries having bio-efficiency index (EFFidx) above 4 may not be willing to fully preserve their biocapacity surplus, but as in case 2.1. they should aim to not decrease by more than 2% by 2030 and a further 2% by 2050.

Second step: Acting on Ecological Footprint

To set the goals for each country, a complex calculation was performed in this simulation to re-parameterize the share of each ecological footprint at the global goal EQ=1 within 2050. Both the possible increase in biocapacity just calculated and an equitable decrease in the overall population was taken in account. Specifically:

  • Each country-share of the ecological footprint was re-parameterized. To fill the gap it was supposed to intervene by equally moving the factors “population” and “ecological footprint per capita”
  • Countries having biocapacity reserve were tweaked increasing the re-parameterized quote by 10% when the balance per capita is over 4 gha, and by 5% when the balance per capita is under 4 gha
  • Countries having biocapacity deficit were tweaked decreasing the re-parameterized quote by 10% when the balance per capita is under -4 gha, and by 5% when it is between -4 and 0 gha

Third step: Acting on population

Acting on the size of the population will be one of the major obstacles to reach the equilibrium (EQidx=1), which will require an important and equally essential socio-cultural step. Looking at the “Single Factor Simulation” in this study, we immediately understand that if we don’t change our lifestyle and don’t respect the planetary resources, the population may soon have to dramatically decrease compared to today, and “the HOW” could be very painful. One of the goals of this simulation is precisely to ensure that in order to guarantee a healthy life for future generations, we don’t have to wait for population becoming a dramatic urgency, but the reduction can be programmed in a smart way. In this simulation the population variations are calculated considering the possible (albeit difficult) and simultaneous recovery of biocapacity, and dividing the task of resizing the ecological footprint equally between lifestyle and population size variations.

EQ2020 Figures

countryPopulation 2020SurfacefootprintPerCapbiocapPerCapbalance PerCapEQ
Brazil21255941785148773,119,085,970,34
China143932377695980803,380,94-2,443,60
United States33100265193757758,223,76-4,462,19
Russia145934462170982425,696,791,100,84
India138000438532875901,160,45-0,712,58
Canada3774215499846708,1716,017,840,51
Australia2549988476878509,3116,577,260,56
Indonesia27352361519194401,581,26-0,321,25
Argentina4519577427804003,146,923,780,45
France652735115637325,143,11-2,031,65
Bolivia1167302110985802,9616,7313,770,18
Germany837839423570215,302,27-3,032,33
Colombia5088289111389101,873,601,730,52
Mexico12893275319725502,891,27-1,622,28
Nigeria2061395899237681,160,70-0,461,66
Peru3297185412852202,283,971,690,57
Turkey843390677835623,331,52-1,812,19
Sweden100992654500647,2510,623,370,68
Myanmar544098006785001,431,840,410,78
Ukraine437337626037002,842,27-0,571,25
Vietnam973385793295601,651,00-0,651,65
Japan1264764613778355,020,72-4,306,97
Thailand697999785140002,661,24-1,422,15
Angola3286627212467000,932,551,620,36
Venezuela284359409120503,572,78-0,791,28
Poland378466113138934,442,08-2,362,13
Malaysia323659993297503,712,41-1,301,54
Pakistan2208923408039400,790,35-0,442,26
Iran8399294916480002,790,90-1,893,10
Paraguay71325384067504,1610,526,360,40
Finland55407203381455,8713,447,570,44
Madagascar276910185870400,992,631,640,38
Chile191162017569504,363,63-0,731,20
South Africa5930869012199123,311,15-2,162,88
Ethiopia11496358811271271,020,58-0,441,76
Italy604618263013404,611,08-3,534,27
Tanzania597342189450871,321,08-0,241,22
Mozambique312554358015900,872,061,190,42
Kazakhstan1877670727249005,553,41-2,141,63
Bangladesh1646893831475700,720,38-0,341,89
Republic of the Congo55180873420001,2910,919,620,12
Philippines1095810783000001,100,54-0,562,04
Gabon22257342676672,0226,3124,290,08
Spain467547785047823,671,25-2,422,94
Egypt10233440410014502,150,56-1,593,84
Suriname5866321632704,2589,3385,080,05
Guyana7865522149703,0766,5863,510,05
Mongolia327829015641166,0815,669,580,39
New Zealand48222332691875,6010,144,540,55
Ivory Coast263782743224601,271,780,510,71
Cameroon265458634754401,171,690,520,69
Romania192376912383912,712,32-0,391,17
Norway54212413852484,988,183,200,61
Ghana310729402394601,971,35-0,621,46
Zambia183839557526140,992,231,240,44
Ecuador176430542835602,172,200,030,99
United Kingdom678860112635457,930,56-7,3714,16
Central African Republic48297676229841,247,876,630,16
Uruguay34737301762202,9110,327,410,28
Papua New Guinea89470244628401,913,922,010,49
South Korea512691851002105,690,68-5,018,37
Belarus94493232076005,093,64-1,451,40
Chad1642586412840001,462,030,570,72
French Guiana298682835342,34111,35109,010,02
Mali2025083312400001,531,580,050,97
Uzbekistan334692034474002,320,92-1,402,52
Niger2420664412670001,561,24-0,321,26
Denmark (Greenland incl.)579220221660865,514,78-0,731,15
Austria9006398838706,063,07-2,991,97
Guinea131327952458571,412,090,680,67
Kenya537712965826501,030,51-0,522,02
Uganda457410072360401,240,59-0,652,10
Czech Republic10708981788665,192,46-2,732,11
Morocco369105607125501,680,71-0,972,37
Algeria4385104423817402,120,59-1,533,59
Taiwan23816775359805,931,00-4,935,93
Hungary9660351930302,922,17-0,751,35
Mauritania464965810307002,544,481,940,57
Burkina Faso209032732742001,210,98-0,231,23
Somalia158932226376571,241,270,030,98
Netherlands17134872425195,281,17-4,114,51
Bulgaria69484451109103,322,86-0,461,16
Afghanistan389283466475000,790,50-0,291,58
Ireland4937786702805,573,73-1,841,49
Cambodia167189651810401,211,09-0,121,11
Latvia1886198645896,299,553,260,66
Guatemala179155681088901,890,99-0,901,91
Senegal167439271961901,211,05-0,161,15
Honduras99046071120901,681,770,090,95
Namibia25409058254182,486,884,400,36
Saudi Arabia3481387121496905,610,50-5,1111,22
Nepal291368081471810,980,59-0,391,66
Turkmenistan60312004881005,472,79-2,681,96
Greece104230541319404,381,61-2,772,72
North Korea257788161205401,170,60-0,571,95
Lithuania2722289652005,835,67-0,161,03
Portugal10196709923913,881,51-2,372,57
Yemen298259645279701,030,50-0,532,06
Nicaragua66245541294941,392,250,860,62
SlovaJia5459642488454,062,71-1,351,50
Estonia1326535452276,8610,533,670,65
Belgium11589623305287,441,19-6,256,25
United Arab Emirates9890402828804,941,32-3,623,74
Liberia50576811113701,212,571,360,47
Panama4314767782002,792,940,150,95
Malawi191299521184800,810,66-0,151,23
Laos72755602368001,221,620,400,75
Iraq402224934370721,880,29-1,596,48
Croatia4105267565423,922,80-1,121,40
Switzerland8654622412905,791,30-4,494,45
Tunisia118186191636102,340,93-1,412,52
Serbia8737371883612,701,25-1,452,16
Benin121232001126201,410,88-0,531,60
Syria175006581851801,510,60-0,912,52
Sierra Leone7976983717401,241,240,001,00
Oman51066263095007,521,92-5,603,92
Sri Lanka21413249656101,320,44-0,883,00
Zimbabwe148629243905801,370,62-0,752,21
Azerbaijan10139177866002,310,85-1,462,72
Cuba113266161108601,950,76-1,192,57
Kyrgyzstan65241951985001,911,30-0,611,47
Botswana23516276003703,833,47-0,361,10
Costa Rica5094118511002,841,53-1,311,86
Djibouti9880000230002,190,77-1,422,84
Rwanda12952218263380,870,54-0,331,61
Equatorial Guinea1402985280513,974,400,430,90
Dominican Republic10847910487301,530,56-0,972,73
Guinea-Bissau1968001361201,533,031,500,50
Bosnia and Herzegovina3280819511293,121,63-1,491,91
Tajikistan95376451431000,910,53-0,381,72
Slovenia2078938202735,812,35-3,462,47
Libya687129217595403,690,70-2,995,27
Georgia3989167697001,581,17-0,411,35
Eritrea35464211213200,491,300,810,38
Togo8278724567851,130,53-0,602,13
Bhutan771608470004,845,270,430,92
El Salvador6486205210402,070,61-1,463,39
Burundi11890784278300,800,32-0,482,50
Bahamas393244139406,849,552,710,72
Qatar28810531143710,801,24-9,568,71
Albania2877797287482,211,18-1,031,87
Moldova4033963338431,780,80-0,982,23
Macedonia2083374253333,261,51-1,752,16
Haiti11402528277500,610,27-0,342,26
Israel (and Palestine)8655535269906,220,35-5,8717,77
Solomon Islands686884284501,294,363,070,30
Armenia2963243298002,230,89-1,342,51
Kuwait4270571178208,130,55-7,5814,78
Timor-Leste1318445150070,481,781,300,27
Lebanon6825445104523,840,33-3,5111,64
New Caledonia285498185753,587,674,090,47
Trinidad and Tobago139948851287,921,56-6,365,08
Jordan10203134923002,100,21-1,8910,00
Fiji896445182702,902,37-0,531,22
Montenegro628066140263,783,24-0,541,17
Gambia2416668113001,030,82-0,211,26
Lesotho2142249303551,660,78-0,882,13
Jamaica2961167109911,890,43-1,464,40
Brunei43747957704,062,87-1,191,41
Luxembourg625978258615,821,68-14,149,42
Swaziland1160164173632,010,88-1,132,28
Bahrain17015757657,490,58-6,9112,91
Mauritius127176820403,460,71-2,754,87
Cyprus120735992504,210,34-3,8712,38
French Polynesia28090841674,731,37-3,363,45
Samoa19841429942,771,93-0,841,44
Cape Verde55598740332,520,62-1,904,06
Singapore58503426937,970,05-7,92159,40
Comoros86960121701,030,32-0,713,22
Grenada1125233442,981,96-1,021,52
Sao Tome and Principe21915910011,490,87-0,621,71
Guadeloupe40012416283,230,45-2,787,18
Reunion89531225123,650,18-3,4720,28
Tonga1056957482,701,48-1,221,82
Martinique37526511282,080,39-1,695,33
Saint Vincent and the Grenadines1109403893,111,26-1,852,47
Antigua and Barbuda979294435,380,94-4,445,72
Dominica719867542,571,03-1,542,50
Saint Lucia1836276162,450,34-2,117,21
British Virgin Islands302311532,862,05-0,811,40
Aruba10676618011,880,57-11,3120,84
Barbados2873754314,480,19-4,2923,58
Saint Kitts and Nevis531992614,940,62-4,327,97
Cayman Islands657222645,650,32-5,3317,66
Wallis and Futuna112391422,071,51-0,561,37
Bermuda62278535,770,13-5,6444,38
Montserrat49921027,781,36-6,425,72
Nauru10824212,940,19-2,7515,47
Sudan4168200018860681,331,21-0,121,10
South Sudan126579416197451,331,21-0,121,10
Congo Democratic Republic9932000023454100,812,641,830,31
Island366700102819NULL
Belize377968229665,993,76-2,231,59
Vanuatu27245912200NULL
Kiribati110136811NULL
Micronesia1358697022,802,16-0,641,30
Andorra85458468NULL
Palau20918458NULL
Seychelles95652455NULL
Malta4935593165,680,58-4,109,79
Maldive392709300NULL
Isole Marshall56429181NULL
Liechtenstein37500160NULL
San Marino3390961NULL
Tuvalu982726NULL
Monaco400002NULL
Vatican6180NULL
WORLD77945023781359142622,751,73-1,011,58
In this table you can sort by country (search field) and get a visual on current population, surface (sqKm), Footprint per Capite, Biocapacity per Capite, Balance per Capite and finally EQ index

EQ2030 figures

countryPopulation
2030
dev%FootPrint
per capite
dev%Biocapacity
per capite
dev%EQ  
Brazil2188408502.963.23.058,642-4.810.37
China1376405417-4.373.24-4.191,08115.033
United States307614870-7.077.68-6.64,45018.361.73
Russia1468538400.635.730.637,4229.310.77
India1319679104-4.371.11-4.190,51715.032.15
Canada388574882.968.423.0517,106.840.49
Australia262534422.969.593.0517,706.840.54
Indonesia261566849-4.371.51-4.191,44915.031.04
Argentina454805050.633.160.637,5649.310.42
France62420156-4.374.92-4.193,2524.571.51
Bolivia120179752.963.053.0517,876.840.17
Germany80121425-4.375.08-4.192,3262.482.18
Colombia512034500.631.880.633,9359.310.48
Mexico123296608-4.372.77-4.191,46015.031.9
Nigeria197128437-4.371.11-4.190,80515.031.38
Peru331795750.632.290.634,3399.310.53
Turkey80652283-4.373.19-4.191,74815.031.82
Sweden101628900.637.30.6310,55-0.630.69
Myanmar547525780.631.440.632,0119.310.72
Ukraine41821992-4.372.72-4.192,61115.031.04
Vietnam93083537-4.371.58-4.191,0454.571.51
Japan117539965-7.074.69-6.60,7747.66.05
Thailand66748753-4.372.55-4.191,42615.031.79
Angola330733270.630.940.632,7879.310.34
Venezuela27192896-4.373.42-4.193,19715.031.07
Poland36192191-4.374.25-4.192,1754.571.96
Malaysia30951157-4.373.55-4.192,5204.571.41
Pakistan211236289-4.370.76-4.190,40215.031.88
Iran80321295-4.372.67-4.191,03515.032.58
Paraguay73433152.964.293.0511,236.840.38
Finland57044562.966.053.0512,79-4.810.47
Madagascar278654700.6310.632,8749.310.35
Chile18280559-4.374.18-4.194,17515.031
South Africa56716080-4.373.17-4.191,32215.032.4
Ethiopia109938089-4.370.98-4.190,66715.031.46
Italy57818808-4.374.42-4.191,1294.573.91
Tanzania57123006-4.371.26-4.191,24215.031.02
Mozambique314523420.630.880.632,2519.310.39
Kazakhstan17955905-4.375.32-4.193,92215.031.36
Bangladesh157490179-4.370.69-4.190,3892.481.77
Republic of the Congo56811542.961.333.0511,656.840.11
Philippines104790869-4.371.05-4.190,62115.031.7
Gabon22915082.962.083.0525,04-4.810.08
Spain44710947-4.373.52-4.191,43715.032.45
Egypt97860975-4.372.06-4.190,64415.033.2
Suriname6039682.964.383.0585,03-4.810.05
Guyana8097962.963.163.0563,37-4.810.05
Mongolia33751682.966.273.0516,736.840.37
New Zealand49647372.965.773.0510,836.840.53
Ivory Coast265444550.631.280.631,9459.310.66
Cameroon267131000.631.180.631,8479.310.64
Romania18396738-4.372.6-4.192,66815.030.97
Norway54553940.635.010.638,9419.310.56
Ghana29714623-4.371.89-4.191,55215.031.22
Zambia184997730.6310.632,4379.310.41
Ecuador177542040.632.180.632,4049.310.91
United kingdom63089363-7.077.41-6.60,66218.3611.17
Central African Republic49724932.961.283.058,4086.840.15
Uruguay35763842.9633.059,823-4.810.31
Papua New Guinea90033900.631.920.634,2859.310.45
South korea47646639-7.075.31-6.60,7317.67.26
Belarus9036257-4.374.88-4.194,18715.031.16
Chad165293460.631.470.632,2199.310.66
French Guiana3075082.962.413.05105,9-4.810.02
Mali203784120.631.540.631,7279.310.89
Uzbekistan32006136-4.372.22-4.191,05815.032.1
Niger23148479-4.371.49-4.191,42615.031.05
Denmark (Greenland incl.)5539003-4.375.28-4.195,49815.030.96
Austria8612694-4.375.81-4.193,2104.571.81
Guinea132155310.631.420.632,2849.310.62
kenya51420747-4.370.99-4.190,58615.031.68
Uganda43741492-4.371.19-4.190,67815.031.75
Czech Republic10240850-4.374.97-4.192,5724.571.93
Morocco35297058-4.371.61-4.190,81615.031.97
Algeria41934147-4.372.03-4.190,67815.032.99
Taiwan22133944-7.075.54-6.61,0545.455.25
Hungary9238060-4.372.8-4.192,2694.571.23
Mauritania46789510.632.560.634,8979.310.52
Burkina Faso19989511-4.371.16-4.191,12715.031.03
Somalia159933480.631.250.631,3889.310.9
Netherlands15924167-7.074.93-6.61,2335.454
Bulgaria6644702-4.373.18-4.193,28915.030.97
Afghanistan37226639-4.370.76-4.190,57515.031.32
Ireland4721936-4.375.34-4.193,9004.571.37
Cambodia15988115-4.371.16-4.191,25315.030.92
Latvia18980810.636.330.639,490-0.630.67
Guatemala17132410-4.371.81-4.191,13815.031.59
Senegal16011986-4.371.16-4.191,20715.030.96
Honduras99670050.631.690.631,9349.310.87
Namibia26159922.962.563.057,3506.840.35
Saudi Arabia32354014-7.075.24-6.60,59118.368.85
Nepal27863126-4.370.94-4.190,67815.031.38
Turkmenistan5767553-4.375.24-4.193,20915.031.63
Greece9967422-4.374.2-4.191,85115.032.27
North korea24651925-4.371.12-4.190,69015.031.62
Lithuania2603287-4.375.59-4.195,9294.570.94
Portugal9750972-4.373.72-4.191,73615.032.14
Yemen28522157-4.370.99-4.190,57515.031.72
Nicaragua66662880.631.40.632,4599.310.57
Slovakia5220980-4.373.89-4.192,8334.571.37
Estonia13348920.636.90.6310,25-2.610.67
Belgium10770731-7.076.95-6.61,2545.455.54
United Arab Emirates9458055-4.374.73-4.191,51815.033.12
Liberia50895440.631.220.632,8099.310.43
Panama43419500.632.810.633,2139.310.87
Malawi18293708-4.370.78-4.190,75915.031.02
Laos73213960.631.230.631,7709.310.69
Iraq38464214-4.371.8-4.190,33315.035.4
Croatia3925810-4.373.76-4.192,9274.571.28
Switzerland8043109-7.075.41-6.61,3987.63.87
Tunisia11301982-4.372.24-4.191,06915.032.1
Serbia8355427-4.372.59-4.191,43715.031.8
Benin11593248-4.371.35-4.191,01215.031.33
Syria16735637-4.371.45-4.190,69015.032.1
Sierra Leone7628278-4.371.19-4.191,42615.030.83
Oman4745805-7.077.02-6.62,27218.363.09
Sri Lanka20477194-4.371.26-4.190,50615.032.5
Zimbabwe14213209-4.371.31-4.190,71315.031.84
Azerbaijan9695955-4.372.21-4.190,97715.032.26
Cuba10831486-4.371.87-4.190,87415.032.14
Kyrgyzstan6238997-4.371.83-4.191,49515.031.22
Botswana2248828-4.373.67-4.193,99115.030.92
Costa Rica4871435-4.372.72-4.191,75915.031.55
Djibouti9448107-4.372.1-4.190,8054.572.61
Rwanda12386027-4.370.83-4.190,5644.571.48
Equatorial Guinea14118240.6340.634,372-0.630.91
Dominican Republic10373706-4.371.47-4.190,64415.032.28
Guinea-Bissau19803990.631.540.633,3129.310.46
Bosnia and Herzegovina3137402-4.372.99-4.191,87415.031.59
Tajikistan9120718-4.370.87-4.190,60915.031.43
Slovenia1988060-4.375.57-4.192,4574.572.27
Libya6570921-4.373.54-4.190,80515.034.39
Georgia3814785-4.371.51-4.191,34515.031.12
Eritrea35687630.630.490.631,4219.310.35
Togo7916829-4.371.08-4.190,60915.031.78
Bhutan7764690.634.870.635,7609.310.85
El Salvador6202668-4.371.98-4.190,70115.032.83
Burundi11370992-4.370.77-4.190,36815.032.08
Bahamas3957210.636.880.639,490-0.630.73
Qatar2677485-7.0710.09-6.61,3347.67.56
Albania2751997-4.372.12-4.191,35715.031.56
Moldova3857623-4.371.71-4.190,92015.031.85
Macedonia1992302-4.373.12-4.191,73615.031.8
Haiti10904080-4.370.58-4.190,31015.031.88
Israel (and Palestine)8043958-7.075.81-6.60,41418.3614.02
Solomon Islands6912110.631.30.634,7659.310.27
Armenia2833708-4.372.14-4.191,02315.032.09
Kuwait3968824-7.077.59-6.60,65018.3611.66
Timor-Leste13267510.630.480.631,9459.310.25
Lebanon6527079-4.373.68-4.190,3454.5710.66
New Caledonia2939352.963.693.058,1946.840.45
Trinidad and Tobago1300604-7.077.4-6.61,6455.454.5
Jordan9757116-4.372.01-4.190,24115.038.33
Fiji857258-4.372.78-4.192,72615.031.02
Montenegro600611-4.373.62-4.193,72615.030.97
Gambia2311026-4.370.99-4.190,94315.031.05
Lesotho2048603-4.371.59-4.190,89715.031.77
Jamaica2831723-4.371.81-4.190,49415.033.66
Brunei418355-4.373.89-4.193,0014.571.3
Luxembourg581748-7.0714.78-6.61,7715.458.34
Swaziland1109449-4.371.93-4.191,01215.031.9
Bahrain1581346-7.077-6.60,6115.4511.44
Mauritius1216174-4.373.32-4.190,7272.484.56
Cyprus1154581-4.374.03-4.190,39115.0310.31
French Polynesia268628-4.374.53-4.191,57515.032.88
Samoa189741-4.372.65-4.192,22015.031.2
Cape Verde531683-4.372.41-4.190,71315.033.39
Singapore5436972-7.077.44-6.60,0525.45141.18
Comoros831587-4.370.99-4.190,36815.032.68
Grenada107604-4.372.86-4.192,0082.481.42
Sao Tome and Principe209579-4.371.43-4.191,00015.031.43
Guadeloupe382633-4.373.09-4.190,51715.035.98
Reunion856174-4.373.5-4.190,20715.0316.89
Tonga101075-4.372.59-4.191,5474.571.67
Martinique358861-4.371.99-4.190,44815.034.44
Saint Vincent and the Grenadines106090-4.372.98-4.191,3174.572.26
Antigua and Barbuda91010-7.075.02-6.61,0117.64.97
Dominica68839-4.372.46-4.191,18415.032.08
Saint Lucia175600-4.372.35-4.190,39115.036
British Virgin Islands28909-4.372.74-4.192,1002.481.3
Aruba99222-7.0711.1-6.60,6137.618.09
Barbados267070-7.074.18-6.60,22418.3618.61
Saint kitts and Nevis49440-7.074.61-6.60,73318.366.29
Cayman Islands61078-7.075.28-6.60,37818.3613.93
Wallis and Futuna10748-4.371.98-4.191,73615.031.14
Bermuda57878-7.075.39-6.60,15318.3635.02
Montserrat4639-7.077.27-6.61,60918.364.51
Nauru10351-4.372.82-4.190,21815.0312.89
Sudan39859920-4.371.27-4.190-100NULL
South Sudan12104614-4.371.27-4.190-100NULL
Congo Democratic Republic999457100.630.820.630-100NULL
IslandNULLNULLNULLNULLNULLNULLNULL
Belize361446-4.375.74-4.190-100NULL
VanuatuNULLNULLNULLNULLNULLNULLNULL
KiribatiNULLNULLNULLNULLNULLNULLNULL
Micronesia129930-4.372.68-4.190-100NULL
AndorraNULLNULLNULLNULLNULLNULLNULL
PalauNULLNULLNULLNULLNULLNULLNULL
SeychellesNULLNULLNULLNULLNULLNULLNULL
Malta458685-7.075.31-6.60-100NULL
MaldiveNULLNULLNULLNULLNULLNULLNULL
Isole MarshallNULLNULLNULLNULLNULLNULLNULL
LiechtensteinNULLNULLNULLNULLNULLNULLNULL
San MarinoNULLNULLNULLNULLNULLNULLNULL
TuvaluNULLNULLNULLNULLNULLNULLNULL
MonacoNULLNULLNULLNULLNULLNULLNULL
VaticanNULLNULLNULLNULLNULLNULLNULL
WORLD7494980808-3.842.64-41,888,811.4
This table show the projections for an ideal route to get the Global EQ index=1 within 2050. Here you can see the step 2030. See above to see priciples guiding this projection.

EQ2050 Figures

countryPopulationdev%FootPrint
per capite
dev%Biocapacity
per capite
dev%EQ
Brazil203957731-6.83-6.379.095.150.33
China1183047249-14.052.84-12.321.3827.982.05
United States256281953-16.696.58-14.35.8832.031.12
Russia133472435-9.115.25-8.358.9821.030.58
India1134289879-14.050.97-12.320.616.341.62
Canada36214834-6.87.88-6.3720.1918.030.39
Australia24467975-6.88.98-6.3720.918.030.43
Indonesia224821799-14.051.33-12.321.8527.980.72
Argentina41336295-9.112.9-8.359.1521.030.32
France53651339-14.054.32-12.323.7816.341.14
Bolivia11200646-6.82.86-6.3721.118.030.14
Germany68865924-14.054.45-12.322.6514.021.68
Colombia46537763-9.111.72-8.354.7621.030.36
Mexico105975835-14.052.43-12.321.8727.981.3
Nigeria169435729-14.050.97-12.321.0327.980.95
Peru30156233-9.112.1-8.355.2521.030.4
Turkey69322207-14.052.8-12.322.2427.981.25
Sweden9236841-9.116.69-8.3511.6110.030.58
Myanmar49763492-9.111.32-8.352.4321.030.54
Ukraine35946816-14.052.39-12.323.3427.980.71
Vietnam80007112-14.051.39-12.321.2216.341.14
Japan97925604-16.694.02-14.30.9320.034.32
Thailand57371853-14.052.23-12.321.8327.981.22
Angola30059667-9.110.86-8.353.3721.030.25
Venezuela23372824-14.053-12.324.0927.980.73
Poland31107892-14.053.73-12.322.5316.341.47
Malaysia26603122-14.053.12-12.322.9316.341.06
Pakistan181561702-14.050.66-12.320.5227.981.29
Iran69037717-14.052.34-12.321.3227.981.77
Paraguay6843904-6.84.01-6.3711.825.150.34
Finland5316503-6.85.66-6.3713.455.150.42
Madagascar25326352-9.110.91-8.353.4821.030.26
Chile15712496-14.053.66-12.325.3427.980.69
South Africa48748575-14.052.78-12.321.6927.981.64
Ethiopia94493927-14.050.86-12.320.8527.981
Italy49696391-14.053.87-12.321.3116.342.95
Tanzania49098336-14.051.11-12.321.5927.980.7
Mozambique28586387-9.110.8-8.352.7321.030.29
Kazakhstan15433450-14.054.66-12.325.0227.980.93
Bangladesh135365874-14.050.6-12.320.4414.021.36
Republic of the Congo5294785-6.81.24-6.3713.7618.030.09
Philippines90069792-14.050.92-12.320.7216.341.28
Gabon2135665-6.81.95-6.3726.335.150.07
Spain38429930-14.053.08-12.321.8427.981.68
Egypt84113413-14.051.81-12.320.8227.982.19
Suriname562893-6.84.1-6.3789.415.150.05
Guyana754722-6.82.96-6.3766.645.150.04
Mongolia3145627-6.85.87-6.3719.7518.030.3
New Zealand4627091-6.85.4-6.3712.7918.030.42
Ivory Coast24125710-9.111.17-8.352.3521.030.5
Cameroon24278987-9.111.08-8.352.2421.030.48
Romania15812354-14.052.28-12.323.116.340.73
Norway4958296-9.114.59-8.3510.8221.030.42
Ghana25540297-14.051.65-12.321.9927.980.83
Zambia16814063-9.110.91-8.352.9521.030.31
Ecuador16136431-9.112-8.352.9121.030.69
United kingdom52561390-16.696.35-14.30.8832.037.25
Central African Republic4634320-6.81.2-6.379.9218.030.12
Uruguay3333158-6.82.81-6.3711.5918.030.24
Papua New Guinea8182996-9.111.76-8.355.1921.030.34
South korea39695654-16.694.55-14.30.8820.035.19
Belarus7766839-14.054.28-12.325.3627.980.8
Chad15023183-9.111.35-8.352.6921.030.5
French Guiana286595-6.82.26-6.37111.455.150.02
Mali18521520-9.111.41-8.352.0921.030.68
Uzbekistan27509897-14.051.95-12.321.3527.981.44
Niger19896568-14.051.31-12.321.8327.980.72
Denmark (Greenland incl.)4760881-14.054.63-12.327.0427.980.66
Austria7402778-14.055.09-12.323.7416.341.36
Guinea12011324-9.111.3-8.352.7721.030.47
kenya44197133-14.050.87-12.320.7527.981.15
Uganda37596664-14.051.04-12.320.8727.981.2
Czech Republic8802210-14.054.36-12.322.9916.341.46
Morocco30338508-14.051.41-12.321.0527.981.35
Algeria36043215-14.051.78-12.320.8727.982.05
Taiwan18440365-16.694.75-14.31.2417.633.83
Hungary7940292-14.052.45-12.322.6416.340.93
Mauritania4252602-9.112.34-8.355.9321.030.4
Burkina Faso17181374-14.051.02-12.321.4427.980.7
Somalia14536025-9.111.14-8.351.6821.030.68
Netherlands13266838-16.694.23-14.31.4517.632.91
Bulgaria5711251-14.052.79-12.324.2127.980.66
Afghanistan31997021-14.050.66-12.320.7427.980.9
Ireland4058596-14.054.68-12.324.5416.341.03
Cambodia13742096-14.051.02-12.321.627.980.63
Latvia1725127-9.115.8-8.3510.4410.030.56
Guatemala14725640-14.051.59-12.321.4627.981.09
Senegal13762613-14.051.02-12.321.5527.980.66
Honduras9058806-9.111.55-8.352.3421.030.66
Namibia2438082-6.82.39-6.378.6818.030.28
Saudi Arabia26954971-16.694.49-14.30.7832.035.75
Nepal23948900-14.050.82-12.320.8727.980.95
Turkmenistan4957324-14.054.6-12.324.1127.981.12
Greece8567194-14.053.68-12.322.3727.981.55
North korea21188810-14.050.98-12.320.8827.981.11
Lithuania2237576-14.054.9-12.326.916.340.71
Portugal8381150-14.053.26-12.322.2227.981.47
Yemen24515349-14.050.87-12.320.7427.981.18
Nicaragua6058852-9.111.28-8.352.9821.030.43
Slovakia4487534-14.053.41-12.323.316.341.03
Estonia1213256-9.116.33-8.3511.067.830.57
Belgium8973376-16.695.96-14.31.4817.634.03
United Arab Emirates8129382-14.054.15-12.321.9427.982.14
Liberia4625782-9.111.12-8.353.421.030.33
Panama3946309-9.112.57-8.353.8921.030.66
Malawi15723799-14.050.68-12.320.9727.980.7
Laos6654266-9.111.13-8.352.1421.030.53
Iraq33060740-14.051.58-12.320.4327.983.7
Croatia3374310-14.053.29-12.323.4116.340.97
Switzerland6700923-16.694.63-14.31.6820.032.76
Tunisia9714273-14.051.97-12.321.3727.981.44
Serbia7181652-14.052.27-12.321.8427.981.23
Benin9964623-14.051.18-12.321.327.980.91
Syria14384606-14.051.27-12.320.8827.981.44
Sierra Leone6556654-14.051.04-12.321.8327.980.57
Oman3953854-16.696.02-14.3332.032.01
Sri Lanka17600547-14.051.11-12.320.6527.981.71
Zimbabwe12216529-14.051.15-12.320.9127.981.26
Azerbaijan8333862-14.051.94-12.321.2527.981.55
Cuba9309873-14.051.64-12.321.1227.981.46
Kyrgyzstan5362540-14.051.6-12.321.9127.980.84
Botswana1932912-14.053.22-12.325.1127.980.63
Costa Rica4187093-14.052.39-12.322.2527.981.06
Djibouti8120832-14.051.84-12.320.9416.341.96
Rwanda10646031-14.050.73-12.320.6616.341.11
Equatorial Guinea1283178-9.113.66-8.354.8110.030.76
Dominican Republic8916402-14.051.29-12.320.8227.981.56
Guinea-Bissau1799944-9.111.41-8.354.0121.030.35
Bosnia and Herzegovina2696658-14.052.62-12.322.427.981.09
Tajikistan7839435-14.050.76-12.320.7827.980.98
Slovenia1708776-14.054.88-12.322.8616.341.71
Libya5647835-14.053.1-12.321.0327.983.01
Georgia3278882-14.051.33-12.321.7227.980.77
Eritrea3243575-9.110.45-8.351.7221.030.26
Togo6804669-14.050.95-12.320.7827.981.22
Bhutan705717-9.114.46-8.356.9721.030.64
El Salvador5331314-14.051.74-12.320.8216.342.13
Burundi9773589-14.050.67-12.320.4727.981.43
Bahamas359663-9.116.31-8.3510.4410.030.6
Qatar2230683-16.698.64-14.31.620.035.4
Albania2365395-14.051.86-12.321.7427.981.07
Moldova3315702-14.051.5-12.321.1827.981.27
Macedonia1712422-14.052.74-12.322.2227.981.23
Haiti9372269-14.050.51-12.320.427.981.29
Israel (and Palestine)6701630-16.694.98-14.30.5532.039.1
Solomon Islands628228-9.111.19-8.355.7721.030.21
Armenia2435627-14.051.87-12.321.3127.981.43
Kuwait3306530-16.696.51-14.30.8632.037.57
Timor-Leste1205857-9.110.44-8.352.3521.030.19
Lebanon5610151-14.053.23-12.320.416.348.04
New Caledonia273945-6.83.45-6.379.6718.030.36
Trinidad and Tobago1083567-16.696.34-14.31.9417.633.28
Jordan8386431-14.051.76-12.320.3127.985.71
Fiji736830-14.052.44-12.323.4927.980.7
Montenegro516237-14.053.18-12.324.7727.980.67
Gambia1986372-14.050.87-12.321.2127.980.72
Lesotho1760814-14.051.39-12.321.1527.981.21
Jamaica2433921-14.051.59-12.320.6327.982.51
Brunei359584-14.053.41-12.323.4916.340.98
Luxembourg484669-16.6912.66-14.32.1320.035.96
Swaziland953593-14.051.69-12.321.327.981.3
Bahrain1317461-16.696-14.30.7217.638.33
Mauritius1045325-14.052.91-12.320.8314.023.5
Cyprus992385-14.053.54-12.320.527.987.07
French Polynesia230891-14.053.97-12.322.0227.981.97
Samoa163086-14.052.33-12.322.8427.980.82
Cape Verde456992-14.052.12-12.320.9127.982.32
Singapore4529683-16.696.38-14.30.0617.63102.86
Comoros714766-14.050.87-12.320.4727.981.84
Grenada92488-14.052.5-12.322.2914.021.09
Sao Tome and Principe180137-14.051.25-12.321.1616.341.08
Guadeloupe328881-14.052.71-12.320.6627.984.1
Reunion735899-14.053.07-12.320.2627.9811.57
Tonga86876-14.052.27-12.321.816.341.26
Martinique308448-14.051.75-12.320.5727.983.04
Saint Vincent and the Grenadines91187-14.052.61-12.321.5316.341.7
Antigua and Barbuda75822-16.694.31-14.31.2120.033.55
Dominica59169-14.052.16-12.321.5227.981.42
Saint Lucia150932-14.052.06-12.320.527.984.11
British Virgin Islands24848-14.052.4-12.322.4416.340.98
Aruba82665-16.699.51-14.30.7420.0312.92
Barbados222503-16.693.59-14.30.332.0312.08
Saint kitts and Nevis41190-16.693.95-14.30.9732.034.08
Cayman Islands50886-16.694.52-14.30.532.039.04
Wallis and Futuna9238-14.051.74-12.322.2227.980.78
Bermuda48219-16.694.62-14.30.232.0322.73
Montserrat3865-16.696.23-14.32.1332.032.93
Nauru8897-14.052.47-12.320.2827.988.83
Sudan34260377-14.051.12-12.32NULLNULLNULL
South Sudan10404151-14.051.12-12.32NULLNULLNULL
Congo Democratic Republic90838600-9.110.75-8.35NULLNULLNULL
IslandNULLNULLNULLNULLNULLNULLNULL
Belize310670-14.055.03-12.32NULLNULLNULL
VanuatuNULLNULLNULLNULLNULLNULLNULL
KiribatiNULLNULLNULLNULLNULLNULLNULL
Micronesia111677-14.052.35-12.32NULLNULLNULL
AndorraNULLNULLNULLNULLNULLNULLNULL
PalauNULLNULLNULLNULLNULLNULLNULL
SeychellesNULLNULLNULLNULLNULLNULLNULL
Malta382143-16.694.55-14.3NULLNULLNULL
MaldiveNULLNULLNULLNULLNULLNULLNULL
Isole MarshallNULLNULLNULLNULLNULLNULLNULL
LiechtensteinNULLNULLNULLNULLNULLNULLNULL
San MarinoNULLNULLNULLNULLNULLNULLNULL
TuvaluNULLNULLNULLNULLNULLNULLNULL
MonacoNULLNULLNULLNULLNULLNULLNULL
VaticanNULLNULLNULLNULLNULLNULLNULL
WORLD6486630410-132,32-12,122,3223,41
In this table you can see projections to 2050, according to the balanced mixed factors hypotesis (BMFH) stated above

Global Footprint Network National Footprint and Biocapacity Accounts, 2021 Edition Downloaded [download date] from https://data.footprintnetwork.org.

How to read the simulation

  1. Type on all search field the name of the country you want, for example “France”
  2. View data: the first table shows the situation in 2020; the second table (2030) and the third table (2050) shows how each single factor should be moved (GOAL) to achieve the Human Impact Balance in a smart way and providing a quote of effect by each factor

Example: Italy

The simulation shows an ideal path to follow by acting on all three available factors. Italy is a country with a high deficit in ecological balance; the tables shows as ideal path a programmed reduction in population passing from about 60 millions in 2020, to about 58 millions in 2030, to land to around 50 millions in 2050. Hard? Of course yes, very hard. Anyway take a look at the rest:

  • this scenario suggest also a reduction of the ecological footprint per capita; it pass from 4,61 gha to 4,42 gha in 2030 to to 3,87 gha in 2050…another big jump in the lifestyle!
  • this scenario suggest a recover of biocapacity, shown here in biocapacity per capita; it pass from 1,08 gha (current) to 1,121 in 2030 and 1,31 in 2050…another gap to fill overall in terms of land management policies!
  • Despite these efforts, Italy would not reach Human Impact Balance as a country, the EQidx will move from 4,27 to 2,95, still far from 1. Italy will therefore continue to “borrow biocapacity” from other countries, but nevertheless that result would greatly contribute in the scenatio to reach the EQidx=1 at global level.

Take a look at Australia

Here they have good ecological reserve, so the simulation supply for different trends. As for the population, they can afford to grow up over the next decade; anyway to be able to contribute to the main global goal (EQidx=1) by 2050, they too will have to reduce the population in the last 2 decades. Same trend for the ecological footprint, while here biocapacity should grow steadily.

Now you can simulate the path for each Country, just type the name in the search field (CERCA). Typing “WORLD” you will get the global data.

Conclusions

This simulation may be used as a basis for setting national targets, generally at the political level. Obviously each country will follow different strategies, so they may use the figures and tweak them according to that. All in all this scenario sets a basis on which to start to think and finally to build action plans based on the well-being of our planet and its inhabitants… finally not anylonger preferring the logic of pure economic profit.

Thanks for your donation, this work is voluntary and unpaid. Every small donations allow me to continue to work in order to get people aware on how to build together a sustainable world!

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Quest’opera รจ distribuita con Licenza Creative Commons Attribuzione 4.0 Internazionale.